Here are the first seven of Matthew Berry's 15 Rules to Draft By for fantasy football. Each day, we will add a new one as we gear up for the opening kickoff, so check back often or watch "SportsCenter" on ESPN for updates.
Your first fantasy rule to draft by is you must go running back/running back in the first two rounds. Look, it's all about depth. In a standard ESPN 10-team league, you have to play one quarterback and two wide receivers, but can play up to three running backs. The difference between the No. 1 quarterback last season (Peyton Manning) and the No. 10 (Vince Young) averaged out to just five points per game. Yet the difference between last season's No. 1 running back (LaDainian Tomlinson) and the No. 30 back (Julius Jones) was 14 points per game. It's two field goals a week versus two touchdowns. There's a lot of depth at quarterback and at wide receiver. You can get a productive one in the later rounds, but if you take a quarterback or receiver in the first two rounds, in Rounds 3 and 4 you'll find yourself saying things like "Uh, is Samkon Gado still available?" And no one wants that.
Your second fantasy rule to draft by is to not get dazzled by rookie hype anywhere except running back. Look, I get it. They're rookies. They're sexy. They're filled with upside. They're also filled with the broken dreams of many a fantasy owner. In the past six years, only three rookie receivers have had over 1,000 yards: Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton and Marques Colston. And over that same time span, no rookie has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback. For every rookie that steps up, there are a dozen examples like Mike Williams and Troy Williamson who do nothing. So go ahead, take Calvin Johnson in the eighth round. I'll take D.J. Hackett or Devery Henderson in the 11th and get the same stats.
Your third fantasy rule to draft by is you must handcuff your stud running back. By "handcuff" we mean take the backup to that player. So if Clinton Portis goes down, like he did last season, you're not worried. You just plug in Ladell Betts and ride him to glory, like many owners did in 2006. It seems obvious, but I can't tell you how many drafts I've been in where the L.T. owner doesn't take Michael Turner. And you know what? If you have to go a round early to make sure you get him, so what? Instead of grabbing another wide receiver you'll just end up cutting, protect your biggest investment, and then you can spend the season worry free.
Your fourth fantasy rule to draft by is to wait on wide receivers, because statistically speaking, they're a dime a dozen. Look, you score in fantasy football the same way you score in real football … by touching the ball. And the only players guaranteed to touch the ball multiple times per game are running backs and quarterbacks. Receivers are very inconsistent. Consider Chad Johnson, one of the best, who had 11 weeks last season with 10 or fewer fantasy points. Or how about this: It varies a little by scoring system, but last year, the 20th-best receiver, Terry Glenn, had 88 points. The 50th-best receiver, Santonio Holmes, had 51. That's 37 points over the course of a season, or fewer than three points a game. Think about that. The difference between No. 20 and No. 50 is less than three points a game. From a fantasy standpoint, they're basically all the same.
Your fifth fantasy rule to draft by is to remember that we play with numbers, not names. Donald Driver's not nearly as big a name as others, but did you know that over the past three years, only Torry Holt and Chad Johnson have more receiving yards than him? Did you know that last season, only one wide receiver had more receptions than Detroit's Mike Furrey? And the No. 1 guy was another player without a big name, Andre Johnson of the Texans. I could do this all day. Here's another one: Despite the fact that Betts started only eight games last season, there were only seven running backs with more total yards from scrimmage. Lee Evans of the Buffalo Bills had more receiving yards and only two fewer touchdowns than Holt. Names are sexy, but we play with stats. Know your stats.
Your sixth rule to draft by is to not draft a kicker until the last round. Every year, I think this is the most obvious thing in the universe. And then every year, I see things like Adam Vinatieri having an average draft position of 87th. And so I am back again, to continue my mission. As long as there is one person out there who drafts a kicker before the last round, my work on this Earth is not done. Look, first off, you can't predict kickers. The best fantasy kicker last season, Robbie Gould, was undrafted in almost every league. But even if you knew who the No. 1 kicker would be, it doesn't matter. The difference between Gould's 155 fantasy points last season and the 122 points that No. 12 kicker John Carney put up is just 33 points. That's barely two points a game over the course of a season. You really want to waste a valuable draft pick on something you can't predict and whose upside is, at best, a point or two a game? What? Under penalty of my coming to your house, grabbing you by the shirt and yelling at you, do not take a kicker before the last round.
Your seventh fantasy rule to draft by is that you can't win your league in the first few rounds, but you can lose it. Early on, the goal is to minimize risk. So why are people taking Steve Smith and Chad Johnson ahead of Marvin Harrison? It's not just that Marvin and I both went to Syracuse. Harrison has had at least 10 touchdowns in eight straight seasons. Johnson has done it only once and never with Carson Palmer. Also, Smith has had 10 or more touchdowns in only one season (2005). And he's got some quarterback issues this season, don't you think? Look, they're all great players, but in the early rounds, I want safe, I want consistent, I want money in the bank. That's Harrison, the No. 1 wide receiver who sometimes isn't even the first receiver drafted from his team. Go Syracuse.
Source: ESPN.com
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