Cities await 2016 Games decision

The ceremony in Copenhagen will select the host city to succeed London

The hosts of the 2016 Olympics will be decided in Copenhagen on Friday, with Chicago, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo bidding for the Games.

The presentation ceremony will get under way at 0730 (all times BST), with the winning bid announced by 1800.

The city receiving the fewest votes will be eliminated round-by-round until one candidate secures a majority.

Chicago are rated as slight favourites by bookmakers in a bidding race described as the closest ever.

The American city will make the first presentation to the 106 IOC members at around 0750, with Tokyo following at 0930, Rio de Janeiro at 1110 and Madrid at 1350.

A large factor behind Chicago's potential success could lie in the presence of president Barack Obama, a former Illinois senator and Chicago resident, who will be attending the ceremony to support the bid.

Formerly, the impact of star personalities on Olympic bids has been key, demonstrated when lobbying by former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair helped London win the 2012 Games, and Russian President Vladimir Putin led Sochi's bid for the 2014 Winter Olympics.

MATT SLATER BLOG My guess is that we'll be left with the same equation: the IOC's heart calling for Copacabana but its head worrying about crime and passing up the riches on offer in Chicago, a confusion that might just let in Madrid or Tokyo

However, Chicago's rival bidders will also be boasting big names, with King of Spain Juan Carlos, the President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and quite probably, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Yukio Hatoyama, or Japanese royals Crown Prince Naruhito and Crown Princess Masako in Denmark to help lobby for their respective cities.

And many commentators are describing the outcome as too close to call.

A number of factors are considered by the IOC's voting members in determining an Olympic host city; political and social support, general infrastructure, sports venues, Olympic Village, environment, security, transport, accommodation, past experience, finance, and legacy.

However, alongside these, other factors such as emotion, sentiment, geography, politics, self-interest and other factors also play a role - often making predicting a winner near impossible.

The key to victory is picking up votes from the eliminated cities.

The voting starts with all four countries, with the city with the least amount of votes eliminated at the end of the first round. That city's IOC members then join the voting and a new vote is cast between the three remaining cities. This process is repeated until a majority is found, expected to be in the third round.

President Obama's presence could be key to Chicago's hopes of victory

Still, one major consideration is believed to mark Chicago and Rio de Janeiro as favourites.

Although there is no official IOC continental rotation policy, it is believed the Americas may have an edge as previous Games will have been held in Asia, Europe and Australasia.

And Rio will be hoping the opportunity to award South America the Olympics for the first time could prove a marked attraction.

Longtime IOC member Dick Pound noted recently: "Policy wise, the IOC has to decide if we're ready to go to a new continent (South America). That's the biggest paradigm shift. Is the time right?"

Factors against Rio include crime and security in the area, something Tokyo and Madrid representatives have sought to note in recent speeches and press releases.

Madrid, loser to London in the 2005 bidding process for the 2012 Games, boasts a sound plan, having already built most of its venues, the behind-the-scenes supports of former IOC president and current honorary president Juan Antonio Samaranch and credit in the bank from previous bids.

Tokyo also make a compelling case on paper, with a compact Games with superb green and redevelopment credentials.

However, a win for Madrid would make it three European-based Olympics in a row (London 2012 and Sochi 2014 precede it), while Tokyo's bid could suffer by being too like and too close to Beijing, last year's hosts.

The latest indictor of where the IOC's vote may be headed - their final evaluation report published at the beginning on September - only served to further blur the support-lines, with no rankings offered and all cities praised.

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